There’s a lot of money to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. I’ll be going thicker than usual this week chasing the big GPP prizes, and I will play less money games than usual. Here is the first time we’ve seen a $30k top prize so I believe it is worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from the fight against Brian Ortega, so we are now down to 11 fights and we should see a lot of ties on this card with all the popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you will want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so you can separate yourself from the remainder of the field. That said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That is just too much line value to pass in money games which makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this battle, he should be so highly owned it won’t even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe consider avoiding the chalk there if you can. But with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of the week.
GPP play of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird since I literally just chose Paul Felder because my money play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all do not care about ownership. If Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it doesn’t hurt your lineup since only 10 percent of lineups did not possess him and you only need to be top ~50% of the area to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I am imagining Felder will be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that’s half of the field that’s dead with no shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just due to this mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned man to put you at a far better place of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the power to KO anyone and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it truly shock you that much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we’re looking for that boom or bust drama and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this fight happened 5 years before, but now we get a evaporating Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this battle standing for most the struggle which will give him a huge advantage. He’s also dangerous on the floor himself and when he’s taken down I think he will be able to get up if he isn’t able to acquire a submission of his own. If Pettis can win a determination then I presume he will pay his off DK price tag and will be a fantastic underdog to use so you can save salary in your lineups. I may also find this battle ending from Pettis falling Chiesa with a human body kick and if this happens he will probably be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in around 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think that he wins the struggle, but I don’t find him paying off that high price tag. He does not fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the floor is where he’ll have his main advantage in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and at his salary this week I want at least 91 points out of him to pay that much. I would rather pay up for the men higher priced compared to Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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